The number of births in the United States has been steadily declining for over a decade. According to CDC data, in 2007, the country recorded over 4.3 million births—the highest number on record. By 2023, that number had dropped to about 3.6 million. During the same period, the U.S. crude birth rate—the number of births per 1,000 people—also declined significantly, falling from 14.3 in 2007 to around 12.0 in 2023. While many factors are at play, one of the biggest influences is the changing perspective of each generation regarding how many children they want to have. From the post-war Baby Boom to today’s Gen Z, Americans’ attitudes about family size have evolved dramatically—and those views have helped shape the nation’s fertility trends.
Family Size Ideals: From Large Families to the Two-Child Norm
In the early-to-mid 20th century, large families were common. In 1936, Gallup found the average ideal number of children was about 3.6. This lined up with the Baby Boom era (1946–1964), when U.S. fertility peaked—hitting 3.7 children per woman in 1957. But by the 1970s, ideals had shifted. The rise of the birth control pill, more women entering the workforce, and evolving gender norms led many Baby Boomers to want smaller families. By 1978, the average ideal number of children had dropped to around 2.5, where it has remained fairly stable ever since.
Even today, most Americans say they want kids. Gallup reported in 2013 that over 90% of adults had or wanted children, and that number hasn’t changed much. The ideal family size remains around two or slightly more. But recent surveys show a renewed interest in larger families: as of 2023, 45% of Americans said the ideal number of kids is three or more—the highest percentage in 50 years.
The Reality: Americans Have Fewer Children Than They Say They Want
Despite these ideals, the number of children people actually have is much lower. The U.S. total fertility rate (TFR)—the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime—has dropped significantly. In 2007, the TFR was about 2.1 (replacement level). By 2023, it had fallen to just 1.62.
This gap between “desired” and “actual” children is common across generations. While most people still say they want two or more kids, economic pressures, delayed marriage, and lifestyle choices have led to fewer births. Let’s take a quick look at how each generation has shaped these trends.
Baby Boomers: From Boom to Bust
Born between 1946 and 1964, Baby Boomers were the product of the post-WWII birth surge. But when it came time for them to start families, they chose smaller households. Influenced by rising inflation, new career opportunities for women, and changing social norms, Boomers helped bring the TFR down to 1.8 by the mid-1970s. Women born in the mid-1950s had about two children on average—lower than their parents’ generation.
Generation X: Stability and Moderation
Gen X (born 1965–1980) came of age during the 1980s and 1990s and maintained the two-child ideal. Many started families a little later than their Boomer parents, but most still had kids in their 20s or early 30s. Their childbearing helped stabilize the U.S. birth rate for a while, with total births hovering between 3.9 and 4.1 million per year through the 1990s and early 2000s. The TFR stayed close to 2.0—roughly replacement level.
Millennials: Delay, Debt, and Decline
Millennials (born 1981–1996) have had a big impact on birth trends. The Great Recession (2007-2009) hit just as many were starting adulthood, and the long recovery left many facing student debt, job insecurity, and rising housing costs. As a result, they delayed marriage and children. The average age at first birth rose to 27.3 by 2021—a record high, compared to around 22 in 1980 and just over 21 in 1970.
While Millennials still say they want about 2–3 children, many haven’t reached that number. By the time the oldest Millennials hit their early 40s, they were on track to have fewer children than Gen X. In fact, about 15% may never have kids at all—higher than previous generations. Between 2007 and 2020, U.S. births fell every year, dropping by more than 700,000 annually. Millennials were the primary drivers of this decline.
Gen Z: Cautious and Concerned
The oldest members of Gen Z (born 1997–2012) are just entering their prime childbearing years. Early signs suggest they’re even more cautious about starting families. In a 2023 poll, nearly 25% of Gen Z adults said they don’t plan to have children at all. Top reasons include financial concerns, climate change, and general uncertainty about the future.
That said, Gen Z is still young, and many may change their minds. Around 45% still say three or more children is ideal, and it’s possible that if economic conditions improve, they’ll start families later—just as Millennials have begun to do in their 30s. For now, though, the trend is clear: young adults are having fewer kids, later in life.
U.S. Birth Statistics
Annual number of births in the United States (2007 – 2023)
| Year | Number of Births |
|---|
| 2007 | 4,316,233 |
| 2008 | 4,247,694 |
| 2009 | 4,131,019 |
| 2010 | 3,999,386 |
| 2011 | 3,953,590 |
| 2012 | 3,952,841 |
| 2013 | 3,932,181 |
| 2014 | 3,988,076 |
| 2015 | 3,978,497 |
| 2016 | 3,945,875 |
| 2017 | 3,855,500 |
| 2018 | 3,791,712 |
| 2019 | 3,747,540 |
| 2020 | 3,613,647 |
| 2021 | 3,664,292 |
| 2022 | 3,667,758 |
| 2023 | 3,596,017 |
Source: CDC data
Annual U.S. crude birth rate (2007 – 2023)
| Year | Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000 population) |
|---|
| 2007 | 14.3 |
| 2008 | 14.0 |
| 2009 | 13.5 |
| 2010 | 13.0 |
| 2011 | 12.7 |
| 2012 | 12.6 |
| 2013 | 12.4 |
| 2014 | 12.5 |
| 2015 | 12.4 |
| 2016 | 12.2 |
| 2017 | 11.8 |
| 2018 | 11.6 |
| 2019 | 11.4 |
| 2020 | 10.9 |
| 2021 | 11.0 |
| 2022 | 11.0 |
| 2023 | 10.9 |
Source: CDC data
What Comes Next: The Future of U.S. Birth Rate
Looking ahead, the choices of future generations—particularly the younger half of Gen Z and the emerging Generation Alpha—will play a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of the U.S. birth rate. While current trends suggest continued delays in starting families and smaller household sizes, much will depend on the social and economic environment they inherit. If housing remains unaffordable, childcare costs stay high, and work-life balance is elusive, birth rates could remain low or decline further. But with meaningful policy shifts and cultural changes that support young families, these generations could stabilize or even modestly reverse the current trend. Their views on parenthood, shaped by today’s uncertainty but also new opportunities, will determine whether the U.S. continues its path of demographic contraction—or enters a new chapter of renewal.
